The Federal Reserve announced that it will end the purchase program of mortgage backed securities as scheduled this month. I give this three hips and a giant hooray! After providing about $1.25 trillion in economic support, ending this program will force the private sector markets to fill the gap that the Fed has left. And I have all of the confidence in the world that they will do so. However, they will likely not do so at the same returns that the Fed was seeking. Rather, I suspect, the private sector will demand greater yield on their investment than did the US Government.
So what does this mean to the “average Joe” trying to buy a home? I suspect it will mean slightly higher interest rates. If the secondary markets begin demanding a higher return, it is going to force mortgage originators to write at higher rates. I don’t think this rate will have to be dramatically higher, but could be in the range of 500 basis points (0.5 percent). That’s a tough pill to swallow if you’re right on the edge of taking out a loan. If you have the option, I would recommend locking a rate quickly.
For the broader market, I think this is a promising move, thus my cheers at the beginning of this post. If the Fed is willing to cease this program, it must have confidence that the private sector will step forward to continue the function. Lacking that confidence, the program would have been extended to ensure that credit markets remained liquid. I take this as a very positive sign that the mortgage markets are healing.
It will be very interesting to see what happens with the first time home buyer tax credit at the end of April. I can feel the demand that this program is generating in the market. Homes that are in the range of both size and price to be attractive to first time home buyers are seeing significantly more demand than larger, more expensive homes. So, a final word of encouragement to those who own small homes and have been thinking about moving up – do it now!